What NOAA is forecasting for 2026–27
In its September 2026 update, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported that El Niño is strengthening and gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter. It also put the odds at 75% that the October–December period reaches historic strength, exceeding every El Niño on record back to 1950.
NOAA is careful to note that a stronger event raises the chances of El Niño-type impacts but does not guarantee them. Rainfall depends on where the warming sits and how the jet stream sets up. Still, the pattern is worth taking seriously. California’s two most notable El Niño winters, 1982–83 and 1997–98, brought heavy rain, flooding, landslides and widespread property damage, and some current forecasts are drawing comparisons to both.
What this means for Inland Empire buildings
The question is not whether every property will flood. The question is whether your property is ready for the possibility of significantly heavier rainfall. Inland Empire buildings often face the same weak points in a wet winter: older roofs, clogged drains, poor grading and years of deferred maintenance. Water finds each of them quickly, and repairs made after a storm cost far more than prevention.
El Niño preparation checklist for building owners, HOAs and property managers
1. Roof Inspection and Repair
Look for lifted seams, cracked flashing, ponding areas, worn sealant and damaged penetrations around vents and HVAC units. A small leak that goes unnoticed in a dry year can become interior damage in a single storm.
2. Gutters, Downspouts and Roof Drains
Clear debris and confirm water has a clear path away from the building. Make sure downspouts discharge well beyond the foundation and that roof drains and scuppers are not blocked.
3. Site Drainage and Grading
Water should move away from structures, not toward them. Check for low spots, erosion, settling near foundations and surface drains that are buried or blocked. Regrading and drainage correction are best done before the ground is saturated.
4. Storm Drains, Catch Basins and Retention Areas
Clean out catch basins and inspect underground and surface storm drain systems. Parking lots and loading areas are common trouble spots when drains back up.
5. Waterproofing and Building Envelope
Inspect exterior walls, windows, doors, expansion joints and below-grade areas for cracks and failed sealant. Address small gaps now rather than after water gets in.
6. Slopes, Landscaping and Erosion Control
Heavy rain on bare or poorly drained slopes raises the risk of erosion and slides. Review retaining walls, planting and mulch, and consider erosion control where runoff concentrates.
7. Deferred Maintenance and a Response Plan
Walk the property, document existing conditions with dated photos, and prioritize open repairs. Line up contractors and emergency contacts now, because response times stretch when storms hit the whole region at once.
Why Act Before the Rain Starts
Lower cost: preventive repairs are typically a fraction of the cost of water damage restoration.
Better availability: contractors and materials get scarce once storms arrive.
Reduced liability: documented maintenance helps show reasonable care to tenants, owners and insurers.
Business continuity: dry buildings mean fewer tenant disruptions and less downtime.
How Dubon Construction Advisors Can Help
Dubon Construction Advisors helps Inland Empire building owners, HOAs and property managers assess risk, scope the work and manage repairs, from roof and drainage corrections to waterproofing and site improvements. We can walk your property, identify the vulnerabilities that matter most, and help you prioritize a plan and budget before winter.
Ready to get ahead of El Niño? Contact Dubon Construction Advisors to schedule a pre-storm property assessment 714-909-8195.
